Migingo, Uganda is the aggressor

Uganda rocking the boat in Migingo

Uganda soldiers recently hoisted their flag in Migingo Island even though they knew and it was clear to them that the small territory being disputed was not part of Uganda. In laying claim to the piece of island, the Ugandan security personnel expelled their Kenya counterparts from the island and denied Kenyan fishermen access to their livelihood. Those who were granted limited access had to pay revenue to the Ugandan security forces.
In the midst of all this display of utter arrogance, Kenyans have acted with respect and restraints, not because the land under dispute is of no significance but probably to avert being stocked into war with Uganda. This measured move is not in any way a sign of weakness by the Kenyan side as may be interpreted in some quarters. Going to war is costly and reaching any meaningful settlement can be hard to achieve in heightened tension. Again, by not being drawn into combat, the Ugandans have been left guessing not only our military strength but our next move. It is a smart strategy that is likely to weaken Uganda’s quest and enthusiasm with the Island and eventually they are bound to pull out their disillusioned forces.
This is not the first time Uganda has attempted to make their borders elastic, laying claims to Kenyan territory. In the 70’s, Field Marshal Idi Amin made similar claims, as he dared Kenya into conflict, alleging that his country boundary extended deep into Naivasha Area. Although there was an increased tension between the two countries, physical confrontation was averted when the late President Kenyatta dared Amin to make real his claims. Amin was facing serious political problems and his territorial claim was part of his ploy to divert attention and pressure from his dictatorial regime which was under intense scrutiny.
Relationship between Kenya and Uganda in the past has always been of suspicion and mistrust although under Museveni both countries embraced each other and have worked closely on common issues. It is therefore unusual and highly unexpected of their regime to have any reason to invade Kenya in a dispute they know will be costly to them.
Kenya is a bloodline to the landlocked Uganda, with Uganda’s imports and export channeled through the port of Mombasa. It is a strategic commercial hub that has served their country well and I strongly believe they stand to gain more through their cordial relationship with Kenya and war is not an option. Although their other transit point could be through Dar-es-salaam, the cost would outweigh their current available option. Again, Tanzania may impose heavier penalty against them for provoking a sister country in state of aggression.
A move to temporarily occupy Migingo could just be a step forward by the Ugandan government to draw the attention of their Kenyan counterpart to some underlying environmental issues affecting Lake Victoria, including heavy commercial trawling on the Kenya side that may be affecting the lake eco-system. At times the best way to initiate a dialogue is by stocking your neighbor, after all gestures have been ignored. The Migingo conflict will allow both countries to critically address other hidden issues related to this conflict.
Most Kenyans hope that this matter will be settled in the interest of the Kenyan citizens, now outlawed in their country by a foreign army. Uganda should and must desist displaying her arrogance, interpreting Kenya’s mood for a peaceful solutions as a military weakness.
In pursuit of peace, high ranking officials from the Kenyan government have even flown to Uganda rather than to a neutral country, just to please the Ugandans. Uganda should understand there is a limit to which you can provoke a friend and the more they continue to rock the boats of Migingo, the more they may draw the wrath of Kenya and other nations against them.

Patrick L Opondi,
Wasio-Migori